KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

93%

92%

78%

62%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

EPSNO 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.50u · EPS −19.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	78.8%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	0.1%	75.1%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	3.2%	81.6%	0.3%	—	38.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	56.6%	44.9%	47.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	69.7%	73.6%	43.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	73.9%	64.8%	27.4%	—	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	65.5%	60.7%	34.5%	—	39.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	53.4%	80.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	88.7%	75.2%	43.9%	84.4%	60.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	58.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	73.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗