KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

93%

92%

78%

62%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

EPSNO 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.50u · EPS −19.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	87.8%	38.1%	93.0%	54.2%	81.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	87.8%	38.1%	93.6%	54.2%	81.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	87.8%	38.1%	93.6%	54.2%	81.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	87.8%	38.1%	93.6%	54.2%	81.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	91.8%	38.1%	93.6%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	91.8%	38.1%	93.6%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	91.8%	38.1%	93.6%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	91.8%	38.1%	93.6%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	91.8%	38.1%	93.6%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	91.8%	45.5%	98.1%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	91.8%	45.5%	98.1%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	91.8%	45.5%	98.1%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	86.7%	45.5%	98.1%	60.9%	83.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	86.7%	45.5%	98.1%	60.9%	83.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	90.6%	46.4%	96.9%	51.4%	77.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	90.6%	46.4%	96.9%	51.4%	77.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	90.6%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	77.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	90.6%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	77.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	90.6%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	77.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	92.2%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	93.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	92.2%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	93.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	92.2%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	93.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	92.2%	46.4%	98.7%	51.4%	93.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	92.2%	62.0%	98.8%	77.6%	93.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	92.2%	62.0%	98.8%	77.6%	93.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	92.2%	62.0%	98.8%	77.6%	93.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	92.2%	62.0%	98.8%	77.6%	93.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	92.3%	62.2%	98.8%	77.7%	93.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	92.3%	62.2%	98.8%	77.7%	93.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	79.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	79.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	73.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗