KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

47%

34%

25%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.50u · ICON −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	73.8%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	0.1%	69.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	2.1%	76.5%	0.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	49.3%	37.8%	39.9%	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	62.7%	67.0%	35.8%	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	67.0%	57.1%	21.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	57.5%	52.5%	27.2%	—	31.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	44.9%	74.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	83.9%	67.8%	35.4%	78.6%	51.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	79.1%	—	—	49.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	73.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	71.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗