KDSM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

75%

47%

34%

25%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.50u · ICON −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	81.7%	39.4%	78.0%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	81.7%	39.4%	78.0%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	81.7%	39.4%	78.0%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	81.7%	39.4%	78.0%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	81.7%	39.4%	78.0%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	81.7%	37.4%	89.2%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	81.7%	37.4%	89.2%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	81.7%	37.4%	89.2%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	76.2%	37.4%	89.2%	51.9%	8.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	76.2%	37.4%	89.1%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	89.1%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	89.1%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	83.6%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	83.6%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	83.6%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	76.2%	34.3%	83.6%	51.9%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	83.6%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	83.6%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	83.6%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	83.6%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	68.7%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	80.3%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	80.3%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	80.3%	34.3%	75.3%	46.9%	24.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	73.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	71.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	66.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗