KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

60%

56%

23%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.85u

AIFSNO 48.1¢Risks 48.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.15u · AIFS −48.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	11.2%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	62.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	1.6%	0.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	54.2%	9.6%	4.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	72.8%	19.9%	46.4%	—	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	77.2%	12.5%	25.8%	—	38.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	57.1%	27.4%	56.4%	94.5%	28.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	3.4%	—	—	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	66.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗