KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

51%

47%

45%

18%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

ICONNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.20u · ICON −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	8.6%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	56.5%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	1.0%	0.5%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	47.2%	6.9%	2.7%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	66.3%	15.2%	39.2%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	71.1%	9.0%	20.0%	—	30.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	49.2%	21.2%	48.4%	91.9%	21.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	75.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	71.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	70.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	62.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗