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KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
HRES
51%
AIFS
47%
EPS
45%
ICON
18%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u
VS
ICONNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.20u · ICON −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:0047.2%44.8%77.3%50.6%18.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0047.2%44.8%77.3%50.6%18.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0047.2%44.8%77.3%50.6%18.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0047.2%44.8%77.3%50.6%18.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%75.6°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES51%71.6°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single47%71.1°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%70.8°F5.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON18%62.5°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 72°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗