KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

39%

33%

20%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.8¢Risks 26.80u

AIFSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.20u · AIFS −73.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	37.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	27.5%	2.2%	0.7%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	44.9%	5.7%	20.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	49.2%	2.8%	7.8%	—	14.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	26.8%	8.1%	26.1%	78.8%	8.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	66.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗