KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

70%

38%

27%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u

WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.20u · WN2 −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	21.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	20.3%	82.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	90.1%	7.4%	5.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	75.7%	0.5%	63.6%	95.6%	8.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	78.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	64.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	63.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	59.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗