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KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
88%
EPS
70%
HRES
38%
AIFS
27%
WN2
9%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 48.8¢Risks 48.80u
VS
WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.20u · WN2 −51.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 96.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 59.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00IFS HRES: 38.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00ICON: 48.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 11:2010-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:0061.0%69.1%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:0061.0%69.1%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0061.0%69.1%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:0037.7%69.1%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0037.7%69.1%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:0037.7%69.6%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0037.7%69.6%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:0037.7%69.6%52.3%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:0037.7%69.6%11.6%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:0037.7%69.6%11.6%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:0037.7%69.6%11.6%59.8%48.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:0096.2%69.6%11.6%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:0096.2%69.6%11.6%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:0096.2%69.6%11.6%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:0096.2%69.6%11.6%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0096.2%69.6%11.6%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0096.2%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:0096.2%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0096.2%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:0027.1%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:0027.1%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0027.1%69.6%9.4%38.4%88.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON88%78.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%70.1°F7.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend52%67.0°F9.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES38%64.6°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single27%63.0°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%59.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗