KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

36%

34%

33%

24%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

WN2NO 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.00u · WN2 −66.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	6.6%	60.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	72.0%	1.6%	1.1%	—	15.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	48.5%	0.0%	35.0%	83.5%	1.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	69.5°F	6.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	68.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	68.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	66.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	66.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗