KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

94%

84%

77%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.5¢Risks 43.23u

EPSNO 13.5¢Risks 6.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +6.77u · EPS −6.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	4.7%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	81.6%	48.6%	69.5%	—	76.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	92.4%	70.9%	84.4%	—	76.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	67.7%	77.2%	86.2%	—	78.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	95.7%	86.0%	88.5%	—	83.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	14.4%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	94.7%	92.9%	85.7%	—	84.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	81.6%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.2%	91.7%	93.8%	87.8%	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	89.6%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	87.1%	92.1%	89.0%	—	77.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	84.1%	94.1%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	83.5%	93.8%	89.3%	—	87.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	87.6%	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	88.7%	96.8%	93.9%	—	91.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	84.4%	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	90.1%	93.8%	93.8%	—	92.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	86.5%	92.1%	0.3%	—	93.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	84.7%	96.7%	93.5%	—	93.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	88.6%	97.1%	93.0%	—	93.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	85.6%	98.0%	92.9%	63.4%	93.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	83.4%	98.2%	91.8%	—	93.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	84.3%	98.9%	90.5%	65.7%	93.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	91.3%	98.9%	91.3%	—	94.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	94.1%	99.6%	93.7%	94.5%	97.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	94.4%	99.8%	86.4%	—	92.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	93.9%	99.9%	85.8%	96.6%	96.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	99.6%	100.0%	96.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	65.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0016
WeatherNext 2	95%	63.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0028
IFS HRES	94%	65.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0040
ICON	84%	65.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0272
IFS Ensemble	77%	59.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0534
National Blend	52%	56.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗