WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
96%
WN2
95%
HRES
94%
ICON
84%
EPS
77%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 86.5¢Risks 43.23u
VS
EPSNO 13.5¢Risks 6.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +6.77u · EPS −6.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T11:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00AIFS Single: 82.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:43+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 96.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T15:11:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T15:11:43+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:00IFS HRES: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:0010-11 11:1910-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:53+00:0047.1%76.9%85.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:0047.1%76.9%85.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:0047.1%76.9%85.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T13:35:48+00:0082.9%76.9%85.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:0082.8%76.9%85.8%92.0%—
2026-10-11T15:11:43+00:0082.8%76.9%85.8%92.0%—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:0082.8%76.9%85.8%92.0%—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:0082.8%76.9%85.8%92.0%—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:0082.8%76.9%84.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T18:13:12+00:0082.8%76.9%84.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:0082.8%76.9%84.9%92.0%—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:0093.6%76.9%84.9%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:0093.6%76.9%84.9%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:0093.6%76.9%84.9%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:0093.6%76.9%84.9%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:0093.6%76.9%84.9%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:34+00:0093.6%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:0093.6%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:0093.6%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:22+00:0096.0%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:0096.0%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:0096.0%76.9%94.7%93.7%83.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single96%65.3°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:000.0016
WeatherNext 295%63.5°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0028
IFS HRES94%65.2°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:000.0040
ICON84%65.1°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.0272
IFS Ensemble77%59.7°F5.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0534
National Blend52%56.0°F8.8°F2026-10-11 06:000.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗