KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

72%

63%

56%

13%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.40u

ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.60u · ICON −52.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	1.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	43.7%	13.7%	29.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	62.9%	29.1%	46.4%	—	35.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	24.5%	34.4%	47.7%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	69.8%	45.2%	50.0%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	1.1%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	63.9%	58.3%	42.5%	—	40.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	35.0%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	52.6%	58.7%	43.9%	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	46.4%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	40.0%	50.9%	43.6%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	33.5%	55.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	31.3%	52.9%	41.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	36.3%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	36.9%	62.2%	50.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	27.9%	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	36.1%	45.6%	45.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	27.6%	38.9%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	23.3%	53.5%	40.8%	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	27.3%	53.6%	37.0%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	20.8%	57.4%	34.2%	6.3%	35.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	16.6%	56.4%	29.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	15.7%	60.6%	24.0%	5.3%	30.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	23.2%	58.3%	23.2%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	26.8%	66.9%	25.6%	28.0%	38.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	24.8%	71.5%	12.0%	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	20.3%	72.4%	9.6%	29.0%	29.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	80.8%	25.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0346
AIFS Single	72%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0784
IFS Ensemble	63%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
IFS HRES	56%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.5655
ICON	13%	57.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗