KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

72%

63%

56%

13%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.40u

ICONNO 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.60u · ICON −52.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:33+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	71.2%	58.9%	81.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	71.2%	58.8%	81.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	81.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	81.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	76.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	76.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	76.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	58.8%	76.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	73.7%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	67.9%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:49+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	56.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	76.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	64.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	64.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	64.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	64.4%	58.7%	77.4%	54.1%	65.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:24+00:00	64.4%	58.7%	77.4%	46.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	64.4%	45.5%	74.9%	46.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	64.4%	45.5%	74.9%	46.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	64.4%	45.5%	74.9%	46.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	66.0%	45.5%	74.9%	46.0%	65.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	66.0%	45.5%	74.9%	46.0%	66.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	74.1%	46.8%	54.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	74.1%	46.8%	54.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	74.1%	46.8%	54.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	74.1%	46.8%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	73.6%	50.0%	74.1%	46.8%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	74.1%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	74.1%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	74.1%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	74.1%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	74.1%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	69.6%	50.0%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	69.6%	65.4%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	69.6%	65.4%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	78.0%	65.2%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	78.0%	65.2%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	76.2%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	79.7%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	79.7%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	79.7%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	78.0%	62.8%	79.7%	58.0%	37.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	79.7%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	79.7%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	79.7%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	79.7%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	71.3%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	75.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	70.4%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	44.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	72.2%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	72.2%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	72.2%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	72.2%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	72.2%	62.8%	74.3%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	72.2%	67.8%	75.1%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	72.2%	67.8%	75.1%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	72.2%	67.8%	75.1%	60.6%	32.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	73.9%	67.8%	75.1%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	73.9%	67.7%	75.1%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	73.9%	66.5%	75.1%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	75.1%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	75.1%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	32.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.9%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	79.0%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	83.3%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	83.3%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	73.9%	66.6%	83.3%	59.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	73.7%	66.6%	83.3%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	73.7%	66.6%	83.3%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	73.7%	66.6%	83.3%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	73.7%	66.6%	83.3%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	73.7%	66.6%	83.3%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	73.7%	62.9%	81.4%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	73.7%	62.9%	81.4%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	73.7%	62.9%	81.4%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	72.0%	62.9%	81.4%	56.4%	13.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	72.0%	62.6%	81.4%	56.4%	13.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0346
AIFS Single	72%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0784
IFS Ensemble	63%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1399
IFS HRES	56%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.5655
ICON	13%	57.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7500

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗