KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

54%

39%

32%

28%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

EPSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.90u · EPS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	30.5%	7.4%	18.4%	—	24.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	17.9%	32.3%	—	22.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	14.2%	21.6%	33.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	54.8%	30.1%	34.5%	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	0.4%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	47.5%	41.7%	27.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	35.4%	41.3%	27.7%	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	29.4%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	23.7%	33.0%	26.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	18.4%	37.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	16.5%	33.9%	24.0%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	19.7%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	19.7%	41.8%	30.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	13.2%	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	18.3%	25.5%	25.5%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	12.3%	19.8%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	9.4%	31.0%	20.7%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	11.4%	30.4%	17.5%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	7.5%	33.1%	15.1%	1.6%	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	5.3%	31.4%	11.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	4.6%	34.3%	8.4%	1.1%	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	7.6%	31.2%	7.6%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	8.9%	38.6%	8.3%	9.5%	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	7.5%	42.5%	2.7%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	5.2%	42.1%	1.8%	8.9%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	24.1%	51.6%	6.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1781
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	54%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2088
National Blend	42%	63.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3411
ICON	39%	62.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3770
IFS HRES	32%	61.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4679
IFS Ensemble	28%	61.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5127

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗