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KDTW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
58%
WN2
54%
ICON
39%
HRES
32%
EPS
28%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u
VS
EPSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.90u · EPS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS HRES: 30.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 31.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00ICON: 38.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:0049.1%28.4%55.3%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:0049.1%28.4%55.3%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:0049.1%28.4%55.3%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:0049.1%28.4%47.9%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:0049.1%28.4%47.9%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:0049.1%28.4%47.9%30.9%50.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:0054.3%28.4%47.9%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:0054.3%28.4%47.9%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:0054.3%28.4%47.9%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:0054.3%28.4%47.9%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:0054.3%28.4%47.9%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:0054.3%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:0054.3%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:0054.3%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:0057.8%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:0057.8%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0057.8%28.4%54.3%31.6%38.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single58%64.4°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:000.1781
NWS forecast55%64.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:000.2070
WeatherNext 254%63.9°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:000.2088
National Blend42%63.0°F2.4°F2026-10-14 06:000.3411
ICON39%62.1°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.3770
IFS HRES32%61.1°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.4679
IFS Ensemble28%61.5°F3.5°F2026-10-14 00:000.5127

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗