KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

67%

47%

44%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	7.5%	67.0%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	19.9%	63.1%	9.6%	—	35.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	16.1%	55.8%	42.0%	—	31.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	33.7%	22.8%	25.8%	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	44.4%	50.8%	24.2%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	0.6%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	28.6%	60.7%	29.3%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	13.2%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	37.1%	57.0%	30.7%	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	13.0%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	24.4%	65.3%	25.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	27.6%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	15.9%	47.1%	27.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	23.4%	45.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	20.4%	54.1%	25.9%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	26.2%	54.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	14.9%	58.7%	23.8%	0.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	19.0%	59.0%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	17.5%	59.2%	19.9%	10.5%	21.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	25.3%	61.9%	20.8%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	28.7%	65.8%	19.9%	0.0%	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	25.9%	68.7%	15.8%	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	22.0%	66.9%	12.7%	24.0%	18.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	36.3%	70.0%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	47.1%	75.5%	19.1%	52.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗