KDTW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

67%

47%

44%

19%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:59+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	75.9%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	81.2%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	81.2%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	81.2%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	81.2%	55.0%	48.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:33+00:00	68.1%	37.2%	81.2%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	68.1%	37.2%	81.2%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	68.1%	37.2%	81.2%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	68.1%	37.2%	81.2%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	80.3%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	80.3%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	80.3%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	68.1%	25.8%	80.3%	62.0%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	67.5%	25.8%	80.3%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	80.3%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:34+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	80.3%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	80.3%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	67.5%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	39.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	81.5%	62.0%	57.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	81.5%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	87.6%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	87.6%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	73.3%	27.3%	87.6%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	59.0%	27.3%	87.6%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	59.0%	27.3%	87.6%	62.6%	57.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	78.2%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	78.2%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	78.2%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	73.7%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	73.7%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	67.8%	26.0%	73.7%	29.6%	62.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	73.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	73.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	73.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	73.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	73.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	71.3%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	78.9%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	76.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	76.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	73.4%	26.0%	76.7%	47.2%	49.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	76.7%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	76.7%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	76.7%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	76.7%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	76.7%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	73.6%	26.0%	81.2%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	73.6%	35.0%	81.2%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	73.6%	35.0%	81.2%	28.8%	51.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	75.7%	35.0%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	75.7%	35.0%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	75.7%	32.8%	81.2%	28.8%	51.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	81.2%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	81.2%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	81.2%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	81.2%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	72.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	82.0%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	69.2%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	39.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	71.3%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	71.3%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	71.3%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	71.3%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	71.3%	32.8%	76.6%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	71.3%	39.1%	78.8%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	71.3%	39.1%	78.8%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	71.3%	39.1%	78.8%	31.6%	19.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	72.8%	39.1%	78.8%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	72.8%	39.2%	78.8%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	72.8%	36.6%	78.8%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	72.8%	36.5%	78.8%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.8%	36.5%	78.8%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	72.8%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.8%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.8%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	19.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	26.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	81.3%	41.1%	26.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	81.3%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	73.6%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	75.1%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	75.1%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	75.1%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	75.1%	36.5%	82.9%	34.4%	26.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:47+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	87.1%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	87.1%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	86.4%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	86.4%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	86.4%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	75.5%	43.2%	86.4%	46.1%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	86.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	86.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	86.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	86.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	70.6%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	82.5%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	88.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	88.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	88.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	71.4%	43.2%	88.4%	39.4%	16.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	74.5%	43.2%	88.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	74.5%	43.2%	88.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	74.5%	43.2%	88.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	74.5%	43.2%	88.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	74.5%	43.7%	86.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	74.5%	43.7%	86.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	74.5%	43.7%	86.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	74.5%	43.7%	86.4%	46.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	66.7%	43.8%	86.4%	46.8%	19.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗