KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u

EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.88u · EPS −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	10.4%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.5%	19.8%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	14.1%	14.9%	4.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	2.9%	5.7%	3.5%	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	8.1%	3.5%	8.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	7.5%	8.7%	6.9%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.0%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	1.2%	4.3%	5.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.4%	8.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	1.1%	8.3%	2.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.4%	6.3%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	6.1%	0.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.2%	5.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.4%	4.6%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.8%	7.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	4.4%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.0%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.4%	5.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.5%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	4.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	5.5%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.9%	5.9%	0.1%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	22%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	60.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗