KDTW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u

EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.88u · EPS −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:26+00:00	67.8%	7.9%	47.0%	25.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	67.8%	2.6%	53.2%	25.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	67.8%	2.6%	53.2%	25.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	67.8%	2.6%	53.2%	25.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	46.5%	2.6%	53.2%	25.9%	14.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	46.5%	2.6%	53.2%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	53.2%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	53.2%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	53.2%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	39.0%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	39.0%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	46.5%	3.4%	39.0%	25.9%	14.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	39.0%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	39.0%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	39.0%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	39.0%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	39.0%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	21.2%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	29.5%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	28.8%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	28.8%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	30.3%	3.4%	28.8%	5.0%	44.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	28.8%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	28.8%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	28.8%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	28.8%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	28.8%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	45.6%	3.4%	33.4%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	45.6%	0.8%	33.4%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	45.6%	0.8%	33.4%	8.3%	17.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	33.4%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	33.4%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	33.4%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	33.4%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	36.6%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	36.6%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	36.6%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	32.1%	0.8%	36.6%	8.4%	17.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	36.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	36.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	36.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	36.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	29.6%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	33.5%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	30.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	32.9%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	32.9%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	32.9%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	32.9%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	32.9%	0.8%	33.4%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	32.9%	0.4%	30.5%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	32.9%	0.4%	30.5%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	32.9%	0.4%	30.5%	20.7%	22.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	30.5%	11.6%	22.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	30.5%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	30.5%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	30.5%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	30.5%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	25.9%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	9.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	9.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	9.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	28.8%	11.6%	9.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	28.8%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	29.6%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	26.3%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	26.3%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	23.4%	0.4%	26.3%	15.0%	9.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	26.3%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	26.3%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	26.3%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	26.3%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	26.3%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	21.6%	0.6%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	21.6%	0.6%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	21.6%	0.6%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	14.8%	0.6%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:48+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	19.5%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	15.4%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	15.4%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	15.4%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	15.4%	8.4%	3.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	12.4%	0.7%	15.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	12.4%	0.7%	15.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	12.4%	0.7%	15.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	12.4%	0.7%	15.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	15.8%	0.7%	11.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	15.8%	0.7%	11.4%	6.9%	0.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	15.8%	0.7%	11.4%	6.9%	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	22%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	65.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	60.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗