KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

68%

51%

25%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

HRESNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.70u · HRES −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	23.6%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	6.4%	49.3%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	67.0%	63.1%	28.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	39.9%	64.3%	33.0%	—	39.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	36.5%	53.0%	40.9%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	20.1%	75.8%	46.8%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.9%	65.1%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	17.3%	72.8%	41.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	19.6%	61.0%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	20.8%	62.9%	29.1%	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	26.4%	85.0%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	22.3%	79.1%	20.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	56.6%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	57.7%	82.3%	42.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	58.0%	76.6%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	62.2%	80.3%	38.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	69.3%	82.4%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	55.5%	83.1%	47.8%	86.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	82.5%	0.4%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	65.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	62.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗