KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

68%

51%

25%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

HRESNO 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.70u · HRES −40.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	94.1%	65.5%	89.3%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	94.1%	65.5%	89.3%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	94.1%	65.5%	89.3%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	94.1%	65.5%	89.3%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	94.1%	65.5%	89.3%	43.7%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	96.0%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	96.0%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	96.0%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	91.9%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	91.9%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	86.5%	51.2%	91.9%	32.7%	64.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	91.9%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	91.9%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	91.9%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	91.9%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	91.9%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	88.0%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	92.1%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	92.1%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	92.1%	51.2%	93.5%	25.1%	68.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	65.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	62.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗