KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

87%

38%

32%

18%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.50u · HRES −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	14.9%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	14.8%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	3.1%	36.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	53.5%	49.3%	18.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	26.6%	50.0%	21.0%	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	23.4%	38.0%	27.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	10.8%	61.8%	31.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	0.3%	49.2%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	8.7%	57.5%	26.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	9.9%	44.0%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	10.5%	45.6%	16.1%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	14.0%	72.1%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	11.0%	63.6%	10.2%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	37.9%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	38.5%	67.0%	24.7%	—	17.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	38.2%	58.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	41.8%	63.1%	21.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	48.9%	65.5%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	34.1%	65.9%	27.3%	70.8%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	64.3%	0.1%	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗