KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.1¢Risks 29.05u

HRESNO 71.0¢Risks 70.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.95u · HRES −70.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	4.5%	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.5%	15.1%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	26.9%	23.5%	5.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	8.7%	23.2%	6.2%	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	6.8%	14.2%	8.4%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	2.1%	30.9%	10.0%	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	1.4%	25.8%	7.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	1.6%	15.7%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.7%	16.1%	3.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	2.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.6%	28.2%	1.4%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	10.4%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	10.2%	29.6%	4.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	9.6%	21.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	10.8%	24.3%	3.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	13.8%	25.3%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	6.6%	24.7%	4.5%	29.2%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	22.3%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	21.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	55%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	71.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	63.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗