KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 21 · 15:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

95%

90%

74%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.8¢Risks 85.80u

HRESNO 14.2¢Risks 14.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.20u · HRES −14.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	18.5%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	26.8%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	12.1%	84.5%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	38.9%	93.7%	63.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	54.4%	86.5%	75.1%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	12.5%	90.7%	34.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	89.5%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	39.0%	90.0%	41.3%	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	10.6%	82.7%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	54.2%	87.5%	50.0%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	34.2%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	39.6%	86.9%	19.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	36.8%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	27.4%	91.4%	23.0%	—	11.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	44.3%	86.3%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	27.1%	87.9%	46.1%	85.8%	31.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	86.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	71.5%	91.4%	44.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	81.7%	86.2%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	90.6%	—	46.7%	—	56.5%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	88.8%	89.3%	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	82.5%	90.0%	55.8%	3.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	67.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	68.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	62.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗