KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

HRESNO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.10u · HRES −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.2%	24.9%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	2.1%	40.9%	7.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	4.2%	23.2%	12.4%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.1%	27.7%	1.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	24.1%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	1.1%	23.6%	1.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.1%	13.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	17.3%	1.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	0.5%	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	0.7%	14.1%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	17.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.6%	10.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	10.2%	0.6%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	8.0%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	67.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	64.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	55.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗