KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

HRESNO 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.10u · HRES −45.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:35+00:00	43.7%	5.3%	53.1%	13.1%	10.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	43.8%	5.3%	53.1%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	53.1%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	53.1%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	53.1%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	43.8%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	10.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	24.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:30+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	24.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	24.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	45.3%	13.2%	24.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	45.3%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:33+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	36.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	39.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	39.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	37.1%	4.7%	39.2%	23.3%	24.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	41.2%	4.7%	39.2%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	41.2%	4.7%	39.2%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	41.2%	4.7%	39.2%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	41.2%	4.7%	39.2%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	41.2%	4.7%	39.2%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	24.7%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	24.7%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	41.2%	3.0%	24.7%	9.1%	21.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	29.6%	3.0%	24.7%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	29.6%	3.1%	24.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	24.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	24.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	22.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	22.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	22.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	29.6%	3.2%	22.7%	9.1%	21.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	22.7%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	22.7%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	22.7%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	22.7%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	27.1%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	19.0%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	20.2%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	20.2%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	20.2%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	17.3%	3.2%	20.2%	6.5%	4.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	20.2%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	20.2%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	20.2%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	20.2%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	22.1%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	12.9%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	12.9%	3.2%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	14.8%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	11.7%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	11.7%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	11.7%	0.2%	7.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	11.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	23.4%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:53+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	19.7%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	24.0%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	24.0%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	32.1%	2.4%	24.0%	2.5%	13.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	33.9%	2.4%	24.0%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	33.9%	2.4%	24.0%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	33.9%	2.4%	24.0%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	33.9%	2.4%	24.0%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	33.9%	2.4%	24.0%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	33.9%	3.1%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	33.9%	3.1%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	33.9%	3.1%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	9.6%	3.1%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	9.5%	3.0%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	37.4%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	17.3%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	17.3%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	9.5%	3.4%	17.3%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	16.3%	3.4%	19.5%	0.1%	1.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	16.3%	3.4%	19.5%	0.1%	1.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	16.3%	3.4%	19.5%	0.1%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	67.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	64.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	1%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	55.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗