KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

65%

53%

39%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.40u · HRES −31.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	60.9%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	13.9%	71.8%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	13.7%	89.5%	27.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	36.4%	81.1%	35.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	59.1%	87.5%	60.6%	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	46.0%	71.2%	44.4%	—	29.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	1.2%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	33.0%	82.2%	51.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	53.4%	81.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	51.7%	86.4%	53.5%	77.9%	31.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	87.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	89.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	61.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗