KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

65%

53%

39%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.6¢Risks 68.60u

HRESNO 31.4¢Risks 31.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.40u · HRES −31.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:53+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	94.3%	39.3%	75.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	95.5%	39.3%	75.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	95.5%	39.3%	75.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	95.5%	39.3%	75.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	88.7%	52.0%	95.5%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	88.7%	52.0%	95.5%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	88.7%	52.0%	95.5%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	88.7%	52.0%	95.5%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	88.7%	52.0%	95.5%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	88.7%	46.0%	99.2%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	88.7%	46.0%	99.2%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	88.7%	46.0%	99.2%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	76.0%	46.0%	99.2%	29.0%	64.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	76.1%	46.0%	99.2%	29.0%	64.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	84.9%	47.0%	98.7%	21.3%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	84.9%	47.0%	98.7%	21.3%	53.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	84.9%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	53.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	84.9%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	84.9%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	93.4%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	65.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	93.4%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	65.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	93.4%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	65.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	93.4%	47.0%	98.4%	21.3%	65.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	93.4%	51.1%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	93.4%	53.3%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	93.4%	53.3%	99.3%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	91.9%	53.3%	98.2%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	91.9%	53.3%	98.2%	39.0%	65.2%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	91.9%	53.3%	98.2%	39.0%	65.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	63.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	61.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗