KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

74%

41%

28%

13%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

HRESNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.65u · HRES −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	7.7%	59.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	7.4%	81.6%	17.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	23.7%	69.6%	23.2%	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	43.9%	77.8%	45.4%	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	30.9%	56.4%	29.5%	—	17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	0.4%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	19.5%	69.2%	35.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	36.6%	67.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	34.6%	74.5%	36.3%	62.9%	17.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	75.0%	—	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	70.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	62.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	61.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗