KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

74%

41%

28%

13%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.4¢Risks 54.35u

HRESNO 45.6¢Risks 45.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.65u · HRES −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	97.3%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	97.3%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	97.3%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	94.8%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	94.8%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	61.9%	28.3%	94.8%	18.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	94.8%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	94.8%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	94.8%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	94.8%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	94.8%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	66.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	73.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	73.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	73.5%	28.3%	96.0%	12.7%	40.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	70.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	62.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	61.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗