KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

59%

55%

19%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

EPSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.85u · EPS −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	35.4%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	3.9%	46.0%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	70.8%	9.6%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	14.0%	55.8%	13.6%	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	29.6%	64.9%	30.9%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	18.4%	40.5%	17.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	0.1%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	10.1%	53.3%	21.3%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	22.0%	50.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	20.2%	58.7%	21.4%	45.6%	8.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	58.9%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	61.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	66.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	59.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗