KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

59%

55%

19%

18%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

EPSNO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.85u · EPS −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	50.7%	33.1%	60.0%	29.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	50.7%	33.1%	62.3%	29.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	50.7%	33.1%	62.3%	29.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	50.7%	33.1%	62.3%	29.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	50.7%	33.1%	62.3%	29.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	49.3%	33.1%	62.3%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	49.3%	33.1%	62.3%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	49.3%	33.1%	62.3%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	49.3%	33.1%	62.3%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	49.3%	19.7%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	49.3%	19.7%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	49.3%	19.7%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	49.3%	19.7%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	49.3%	20.0%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	49.3%	20.0%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	49.3%	17.6%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	49.3%	17.6%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	49.3%	17.6%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	49.3%	17.6%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	49.3%	17.6%	62.6%	8.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	62.6%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	62.6%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	62.6%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	62.6%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	62.6%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	55.1%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	58.8%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	58.8%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	58.8%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	58.8%	17.6%	76.7%	19.0%	55.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	66.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	59.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗