KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

44%

26%

25%

24%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.4¢Risks 38.35u

EPSNO 61.7¢Risks 61.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.65u · EPS −61.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	29.5%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	2.7%	39.3%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	2.4%	64.4%	6.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	10.3%	48.5%	10.0%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	23.4%	57.6%	24.5%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	13.6%	33.0%	12.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	0.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	6.9%	45.0%	15.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	16.2%	42.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	14.6%	50.0%	15.6%	37.1%	5.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	66.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	62.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗