KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

EPSNO 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +79.65u · EPS −79.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	8.8%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.3%	13.2%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.2%	30.5%	0.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.5%	17.0%	1.4%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	22.2%	5.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.8%	7.5%	1.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.0%	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.6%	12.0%	2.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.0%	10.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	1.6%	13.6%	1.7%	7.7%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	13.0%	—	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	70.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗