KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

70%

57%

26%

18%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.1¢Risks 57.10u

EPSNO 42.9¢Risks 42.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.90u · EPS −42.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	28.2%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	77.9%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.5%	20.3%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	49.3%	86.3%	10.2%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	37.1%	75.7%	29.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	33.0%	78.9%	28.9%	—	15.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	67.0%	78.8%	36.7%	54.8%	35.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	79.3%	—	—	34.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	70.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	57%	68.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	63.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	63.4°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗