WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
AIFS
70%
ICON
57%
HRES
26%
EPS
18%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 57.1¢Risks 57.10u
VS
EPSNO 42.9¢Risks 42.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.90u · EPS −42.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 58.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:0059.5%17.5%95.9%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0059.5%17.5%95.9%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:0059.5%17.5%95.9%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0059.5%17.5%95.7%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:0059.5%17.5%95.7%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:0059.5%17.5%95.7%33.0%60.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:0058.8%17.5%95.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:0058.8%17.5%95.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:0058.8%17.5%95.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:0058.8%17.5%95.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0058.8%17.5%95.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0058.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:0058.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0058.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:0069.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0069.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0069.8%17.5%96.7%25.7%57.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%76.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single70%70.3°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON57%68.8°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
National Blend46%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES26%63.2°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%63.4°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗