KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

62%

60%

28%

24%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

EPSNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.65u · EPS −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	15.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	9.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	29.2%	71.4%	3.6%	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	18.9%	55.8%	13.6%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	15.5%	59.1%	12.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	43.6%	57.9%	17.4%	31.6%	16.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	58.1%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	52.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	72.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	32%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	67.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗