KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

62%

60%

28%

24%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

EPSNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.65u · EPS −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:22+00:00	40.4%	7.2%	51.5%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	40.4%	7.2%	51.5%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	40.4%	7.2%	51.5%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	40.4%	7.2%	51.5%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	40.4%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	40.4%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	40.4%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	40.4%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	54.2%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	54.2%	6.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	49.2%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	60.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	60.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	54.2%	5.0%	60.8%	6.1%	9.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	60.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	60.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	60.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	60.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	60.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	55.5%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:53+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	68.8%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	72.1%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	72.1%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	56.2%	5.0%	72.1%	24.3%	56.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	55.1%	5.0%	72.1%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	55.1%	5.0%	72.1%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	55.1%	5.0%	72.1%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	55.1%	5.0%	72.1%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	55.1%	5.0%	72.1%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	55.1%	4.8%	86.3%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	55.1%	4.8%	86.3%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	55.1%	4.8%	86.3%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	37.7%	4.8%	86.3%	18.6%	43.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	37.6%	4.8%	86.3%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	86.3%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	86.3%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	86.3%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	85.8%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	85.8%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	37.6%	5.3%	85.8%	18.5%	43.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	85.8%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	85.8%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	85.8%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	85.8%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	85.8%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	36.9%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	88.5%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	48.5%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	40.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	58.0%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	58.0%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	58.0%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	58.0%	5.3%	82.1%	13.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.3%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.3%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.3%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.3%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.4%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	58.0%	22.5%	86.4%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	58.0%	23.8%	86.4%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	58.0%	23.8%	86.4%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	60.4%	23.8%	88.9%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	60.4%	23.8%	88.9%	28.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	60.4%	23.8%	88.9%	28.4%	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	72.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	32%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	67.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗