KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

85%

57%

56%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

WN2NO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · WN2 −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	97.9%	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	99.5%	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	90.4%	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	92.5%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	97.2%	94.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	98.9%	92.3%	31.7%	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	97.5%	70.3%	—	74.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	73.0%	82.1%	36.5%	—	68.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	75.2%	77.6%	93.8%	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	75.0%	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	81.6%	81.0%	74.2%	—	55.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	87.7%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	99.1%	71.6%	62.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	83.9%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	100.0%	99.6%	68.6%	—	66.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	100.0%	99.9%	97.5%	—	97.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	100.0%	100.0%	96.5%	—	98.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.0%	99.9%	99.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	100.0%	99.7%	99.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	100.0%	99.2%	98.2%	—	96.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	100.0%	99.9%	97.8%	—	96.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	100.0%	100.0%	96.3%	100.0%	94.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	100.0%	100.0%	98.4%	—	94.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	100.0%	100.0%	97.2%	100.0%	96.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	100.0%	100.0%	95.0%	—	94.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	100.0%	100.0%	96.5%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	89.5%	76.4%	77.6%	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	16.1%	17.1%	3.7%	0.8%	2.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	14.1%	4.5%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	67.5°F	8.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0081
ICON	85%	62.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0237
AIFS Single	57%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1823
IFS HRES	56%	57.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1980
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125
WeatherNext 2	49%	56.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2601
National Blend	39%	55.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3684

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗