KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

85%

57%

56%

49%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.0¢Risks 70.00u

WN2NO 30.0¢Risks 30.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.00u · WN2 −30.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:51+00:00	29.9%	85.1%	50.9%	40.4%	83.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	29.9%	85.1%	50.9%	40.4%	83.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	29.9%	85.1%	52.6%	40.4%	83.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	29.9%	85.1%	52.6%	40.4%	83.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	29.9%	85.1%	52.6%	40.4%	83.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	52.6%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	52.6%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	52.6%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	52.6%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	52.6%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:18+00:00	29.1%	85.1%	49.0%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	29.1%	91.3%	49.0%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	29.1%	91.3%	49.0%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	57.3%	91.3%	49.0%	55.5%	84.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	57.3%	91.0%	49.0%	55.5%	84.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	67.5°F	8.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0081
ICON	85%	62.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0237
AIFS Single	57%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1823
IFS HRES	56%	57.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1980
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2125
WeatherNext 2	49%	56.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2601
National Blend	39%	55.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3684

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗