KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

60%

16%

14%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

AIFSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.10u · AIFS −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	90.2%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	96.6%	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	73.2%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	85.7%	76.2%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	92.1%	70.8%	8.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	85.2%	35.0%	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	36.5%	48.5%	9.7%	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	37.5%	40.5%	70.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	36.4%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	44.2%	43.4%	34.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	53.4%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	89.5%	29.9%	21.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	44.6%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	98.3%	92.7%	25.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	99.3%	99.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	98.9%	96.2%	76.8%	—	76.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	99.7%	97.5%	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	98.8%	98.7%	69.7%	—	78.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	99.7%	98.6%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	99.9%	98.9%	75.3%	95.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	99.9%	91.7%	85.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	99.8%	82.5%	74.0%	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	99.9%	94.8%	69.6%	—	60.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	99.9%	97.0%	58.7%	97.9%	51.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	99.9%	99.3%	69.8%	—	48.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	99.9%	99.7%	59.3%	99.2%	54.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	99.9%	99.6%	45.8%	—	43.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	99.8%	99.5%	50.0%	98.7%	76.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	26.0%	12.0%	12.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	65.9°F	9.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4720
ICON	60%	63.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247
IFS HRES	16%	54.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0246
WeatherNext 2	14%	56.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0199
AIFS Single	7%	53.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗