KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

60%

16%

14%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

AIFSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.10u · AIFS −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:26:37+00:00	22.5%	71.8%	30.6%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:26+00:00	22.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:36+00:00	22.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	22.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T01:28:57+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:08+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:16+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:26+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	33.5%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:00+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	20.9%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:13+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	20.9%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:20+00:00	18.5%	71.8%	20.9%	16.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T07:31:31+00:00	22.4%	71.8%	20.9%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	22.4%	71.8%	20.9%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	22.4%	71.8%	20.9%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	22.4%	71.8%	20.9%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:28+00:00	22.4%	71.8%	20.9%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:00	22.4%	68.9%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	22.4%	68.9%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00	22.4%	68.9%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:00	13.6%	68.9%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	36.2%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	35.4%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	13.2%	68.7%	35.4%	38.0%	89.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	35.4%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	35.4%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	35.4%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	35.4%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	35.4%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	6.8%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	7.1%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00	7.1%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00	7.1%	68.7%	14.1%	15.7%	59.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	65.9°F	9.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4720
ICON	60%	63.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.3552
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247
IFS HRES	16%	54.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0246
WeatherNext 2	14%	56.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0199
AIFS Single	7%	53.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0050

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗