KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

92%

89%

84%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.07u

EPSNO 9.9¢Risks 4.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.93u · EPS −4.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	57.8%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	92.4%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	19.8%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	81.6%	31.1%	31.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	88.7%	57.3%	64.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	67.7%	61.3%	62.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	93.8%	74.5%	81.6%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	16.3%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	96.4%	92.6%	72.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	88.9%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	88.7%	95.3%	55.2%	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	73.6%	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	69.5%	93.7%	48.2%	—	37.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	76.2%	92.3%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	83.5%	94.6%	45.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	74.3%	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	87.7%	92.2%	58.2%	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	84.4%	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	87.5%	81.7%	65.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	88.2%	82.5%	2.1%	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	87.9%	86.0%	63.7%	—	60.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	88.6%	91.8%	67.5%	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	91.0%	93.3%	64.6%	42.6%	72.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	90.8%	95.1%	65.1%	—	79.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	92.6%	97.4%	82.7%	61.9%	78.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	90.2%	97.3%	83.6%	—	83.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	94.9%	99.4%	86.2%	76.6%	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	94.0%	99.1%	77.6%	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	95.2%	99.1%	72.4%	73.7%	69.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	97.9%	99.5%	87.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	62.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0014
ICON	92%	64.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	92%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0069
AIFS Single	89%	61.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0121
IFS Ensemble	84%	59.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0253
National Blend	67%	57.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1063
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗