KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

89%

81%

80%

71%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.0¢Risks 84.05u

EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.95u · EPS −15.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	51.8%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	89.9%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	61.6%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	15.5%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	76.5%	25.2%	25.2%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	84.8%	50.0%	57.3%	—	60.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	60.6%	53.8%	54.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	91.0%	67.7%	75.8%	—	57.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	11.8%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	94.4%	89.2%	65.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	84.3%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	83.9%	92.7%	46.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	65.8%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	60.9%	90.2%	39.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	68.2%	88.2%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	76.8%	91.4%	35.7%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	65.6%	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	81.7%	87.7%	47.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	77.2%	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	81.0%	73.6%	55.5%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	81.7%	74.2%	1.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	81.0%	78.5%	52.3%	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	81.7%	86.1%	56.0%	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	84.9%	88.2%	52.5%	30.9%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	84.2%	90.8%	52.6%	—	68.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	86.6%	94.7%	72.7%	48.7%	66.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	82.7%	94.2%	73.5%	—	73.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	89.8%	98.4%	76.6%	64.2%	72.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	88.0%	97.6%	64.8%	—	60.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	89.8%	97.6%	57.9%	59.4%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	94.7%	98.4%	77.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	66.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0008
WeatherNext 2	89%	61.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0119
ICON	81%	64.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0369
IFS HRES	80%	60.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0388
IFS Ensemble	71%	58.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0847
National Blend	53%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗