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KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
WN2
89%
ICON
81%
HRES
80%
EPS
71%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 84.0¢Risks 84.05u
VS
EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.95u · EPS −15.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.9% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.5% · 2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00IFS HRES: 86.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 80.3% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0010-11 11:1910-11 19:4310-12 03:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:39+00:0029.5%70.9%68.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:0029.5%70.9%68.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T12:50:25+00:0029.5%70.9%68.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T13:35:33+00:0059.2%70.9%68.0%86.9%—
2026-10-11T14:26:08+00:0059.2%70.9%67.9%86.9%—
2026-10-11T15:11:20+00:0059.2%70.9%67.9%86.9%—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:0059.2%70.9%67.9%86.9%—
2026-10-11T16:42:23+00:0059.2%70.9%67.9%86.9%—
2026-10-11T17:27:36+00:0059.2%70.9%67.9%86.9%—
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:0059.2%70.9%63.5%86.9%—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:0059.2%70.9%63.5%86.9%—
2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:0094.0%70.9%63.5%80.3%80.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:0094.0%70.9%63.5%80.3%80.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:46+00:0094.0%70.9%63.5%80.3%80.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:0094.0%70.9%63.5%80.3%80.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:0094.0%70.9%63.5%80.3%80.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:21+00:0094.0%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:0094.0%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:0094.0%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:0097.2%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:0097.2%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:0097.2%70.9%89.1%80.3%80.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%66.2°F5.6°F2026-10-11 18:000.0008
WeatherNext 289%61.6°F5.0°F2026-10-11 12:000.0119
ICON81%64.1°F9.9°F2026-10-11 12:000.0369
IFS HRES80%60.9°F6.3°F2026-10-11 12:000.0388
IFS Ensemble71%58.3°F5.1°F2026-10-11 00:000.0847
National Blend53%56.0°F6.6°F2026-10-11 06:000.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗