KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

55%

24%

19%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.1¢Risks 38.10u

ICONNO 61.9¢Risks 61.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.90u · ICON −61.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	19.3%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	24.6%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	36.9%	4.2%	4.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	47.1%	13.6%	17.9%	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	18.9%	14.6%	15.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	55.6%	23.0%	30.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	63.1%	49.2%	19.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	39.0%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	37.1%	55.2%	8.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	17.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	13.4%	46.3%	4.8%	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	17.1%	40.6%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	23.2%	46.1%	3.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	13.5%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	25.9%	34.9%	5.5%	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	19.8%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	21.4%	14.8%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	19.1%	16.8%	4.5%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	23.4%	4.8%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	19.9%	24.6%	3.5%	0.9%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	17.4%	26.9%	3.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	18.2%	34.3%	7.9%	2.0%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	12.4%	30.0%	7.1%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	18.2%	48.5%	7.3%	3.5%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	13.6%	38.1%	2.9%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	13.4%	34.6%	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	37.0%	4.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4020
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3025
IFS Ensemble	24%	59.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0557
IFS HRES	19%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0353
National Blend	13%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
ICON	13%	57.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗