KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

55%

24%

19%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.1¢Risks 38.10u

ICONNO 61.9¢Risks 61.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.90u · ICON −61.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	57.5%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	57.5%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	57.5%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	52.1%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	52.1%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	29.3%	10.7%	52.1%	10.4%	51.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	52.1%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	52.1%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	52.1%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	52.1%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	52.1%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	41.4%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	44.0%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	44.0%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	44.0%	10.7%	59.6%	9.0%	26.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	55.0%	23.6%	51.4%	18.8%	12.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	55.0%	23.6%	63.4%	18.8%	12.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	55.0%	23.6%	63.4%	18.8%	12.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	55.0%	23.6%	63.4%	18.8%	12.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	55.0%	23.6%	63.4%	18.8%	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4020
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3025
IFS Ensemble	24%	59.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0557
IFS HRES	19%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0353
National Blend	13%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
ICON	13%	57.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗