KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

23%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.6¢Risks 14.65u

WN2NO 85.4¢Risks 85.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.35u · WN2 −85.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	48.2%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	38.4%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	84.5%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	23.5%	74.8%	74.8%	—	49.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	15.2%	50.0%	42.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	39.4%	46.2%	45.4%	—	56.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	9.0%	32.3%	24.2%	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	88.2%	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	5.6%	10.8%	34.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	15.7%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	16.1%	7.3%	53.5%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	34.2%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	39.1%	9.8%	60.9%	—	71.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	31.8%	11.8%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	23.2%	8.6%	64.3%	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	34.4%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	18.3%	12.3%	52.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	22.8%	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	19.0%	26.4%	44.5%	—	69.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	18.3%	25.8%	99.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	19.1%	21.5%	47.7%	—	51.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	13.9%	44.0%	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	15.1%	11.8%	47.5%	69.2%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	15.8%	9.2%	47.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	13.4%	5.3%	27.3%	51.3%	33.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	17.3%	5.8%	26.5%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	10.2%	1.6%	23.4%	35.8%	28.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	12.0%	2.4%	35.2%	—	39.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	10.2%	2.4%	42.1%	40.6%	45.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	5.3%	1.6%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	57.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	23%	58.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	14%	59.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0199
National Blend	6%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	5%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0024
WeatherNext 2	<1%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗